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As a special form of international trade,processing trade accounting has become an important factor in assessing international trade trends.From the perspective of official Chinese statistics,systematically studying the accounting methods for processing trade and their applications helps correct statistical biases in the current system and offers significant theoretical innovation and practical guidance.SNA2008 proposes the principle of economic ownership,advocating that trade activities be accounted for based on economic substance rather than trade form,which is the fundamental principle of trade accounting.First,the connotation of the principle of economic ownership is explained,the advantages of applying this principle to accounting are illustrated,and the issues involved in translating the principle of economic ownership from theory into practice are summarized.Second,in the context of bilateral goods trade,improvements are made to the existing accounting methods based on gross trade value,and a practical trade accounting method based on economic ownership is proposed.This method is applied to an overall adjustment simulation of the China-US goods trade balance from 2015 to 2024 from China's official perspective,and to partial adjustment simulations from both processing trade type and commodity type perspectives.The results show that after adjusting for the processing trade accounting method based on economic ownership,the China-US goods trade balance from 2015 to 2024is significantly lower than the value reported by Chinese customs statistics.There are notable differences in the extent of adjustment across trade types and commodity types:for trade type,specific-type processing with imported materials is the primary contributor to the adjustment;for commodity type,the adjustment is highly concentrated in high-tech products with HS codes 84 and 85.The processing trade accounting method based on economic ownership is incorporated into China's statistical system,thereby facilitating the transformation of the principle from a theoretical norm into localized accounting practice.This adaptation not only improves the accuracy of China's merchandise trade statistics but also provides empirical support for policy discussions.Finally,it is recommended that China's statistical authorities initiate research and pilot work on a supplementary trade accounting system based on economic ownership,and optimize statistical work in terms of data collection,data development,and data dissemination.In addition,China's statistical authorities are advised to promote the standardized application of the principle of economic ownership in trade statistics through bilateral or multilateral channels.
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(1)后续所有“海关”均特指中国海关。
(2)中国海关未对2015年之前同时区分国家和加工贸易类型的进出口数据进行发布,基于这一限制,本研究选取时间段为2015—2024年。本文聚焦于货物贸易调整主要基于以下考量:一是研究旨在改进中国官方货物贸易统计框架,需严格统一于中国的核算体系。由于官方仅发布服务贸易总额,未公开中美双边细分数据及占比,缺乏纳入分析的数据基础;二是货物贸易是国际贸易及中美经贸关系的绝对主体,其数据准确性对形势研判具有基础性意义;三是中国海关货物贸易数据在历史连续性、统计频度与分类精细度上均十分成熟,为方法论构建提供了可靠支撑。
(3)跨国公司经营国外业务的所在国。
(4)该特定情境下的委托型进料加工类似于无工厂生产(FGP)。此分析也符合联合国2015年发行的《全球生产测算指南》国家案例研究5.2中将海关总署统计的进料加工类比于无工厂生产(中国作为制造商)的思想。
(5)见中华人民共和国海关总署官网。
(6)中美双边贸易数据不对称,本文仅是基于中国海关发布的总货物贸易数据和加工贸易数据进行的一个调整试算。
(7)公开发布的加工贸易统计数据是来料加工和进料加工对应统计数据的合计,不涉及出料加工。
(8)广东省是从企业角度进行加工贸易统计,本文是从加工贸易具体类型角度进行统计,指向同一研究对象。
(9)假设广东省企业对美加工贸易中OEM的比重与广东省企业加工贸易中OEM的比重相同。
(10)公式(3)、(4)均以百万美元作为计量单位。针对中国海关统计中料件进口与成品出口存在的跨年记录时差,本文对2015—2024年数据取年均值以解决记录时差问题,该处理不影响差额调整结果,后文沿用此法。根据海关总署公布的2015—2024年的年均数据,中国来料加工进口10 440.1亿美元、出口10 229.8亿美元;出料加工进口18.0亿美元、出口12.9亿美元;进料加工进口13 867.8亿美元、出口156 457.5亿美元。此外,式(3)中特定型进料加工的进出口值,由进料加工数据乘以比例r得出。
(11)本文加工费严格剔除料件价值,而美国汽车案例或含本地辅料,且加工费比例随品类变动,可能导致加工费占比高估。但根据式(3)逻辑,该高估反而会系统性低估贸易差额缩减幅度,故本文结论保守且稳健。
(12)理论上,来料加工的调整幅度应为负值。此处调整幅度为正值,是多重核心因素叠加的结果:中国海关按货物进口到岸价(CIF)和出口离岸价(FOB)统计的规则、外商提供的专用生产设备和模具等计入进口却永不出口,直接抬高进口基数;跨国公司通过转移定价刻意提高进口料件价格、压低出口成品价格;加上核销损耗、进出口时间错配等监管因素。这本质反映了中国企业在相关全球产业链中处于低附加值环节的定位。若有量化支持,纳入上述因素后,调整幅度将回归负值,进一步缩小中美货物贸易顺差统计值。
(13)不写成特定型进料加工的原因是中国海关尚未对此进行统计,目前只能推算。中国海关直接统计的是进料加工进出口数据。
(14)不同商品编码对应的商品名称见中华人民共和国海关总署官网,下同。来料加工和进料加工采用进口数值旨在规避加工后复出口的商品类别变更问题。出料加工采用出口数值旨在规避加工后复进口的商品类别变更问题。
(15)该调整幅度为正值,具体参见前文对来料加工视角的调整幅度为正值的解释。除此之外,该行业高精密生产特性带来高损耗率也是原因之一。
Basic Information:
DOI：10.20207/j.cnki.1007-3116.2026.0022
China Classification Code:F752.68;F757.12;F224
Citation Information:
[1]YANG Zhongshan,LIU Shaomin.Accounting for Processing Trade Based on Economic Ownership and Its Application[J].Journal of Statistics and Information,2026,41(07):14-23.DOI:10.20207/j.cnki.1007-3116.2026.0022.
Fund Information:
国家社会科学基金重大项目“全球生产核算的理论、方法和中国实践研究”（20&ZD134）
2026-07-10
2026-07-10