被引排行
Systemic Financial Risk:Measurement and Analysis of Temporal and Spatial Pattern Evolution
SHEN Yue;LI Bo-yang;ZHANG Jia-wang;School of Economics and Finance,Xi′an Jiaotong University;Based on the Markov chain model and ESDA exploratory spatial data analysis technology,the systemic financial risk level of each province in 2003 to 2014 is analyzed and the characteristics of temporal and spatial pattern evolution of systemic financial risk in mainlad China are analyzed.The results show that:The systemic financial risk level of each province in mainlad China is generally on the rise and then decline,and the risk is higher in the East and the west,and lower in the central region;There are obvious club convergence phenomenon in 3 provinces of high level,medium-low level and low level,and the long-term distribution pattern of systemic financial risk tends to be balanced,which is inclined to the low risk level;On the whole,the level of systemic financial risk in China has significant spillover effects in different provinces,and the " high-high" spillover effect in the local pattern is concentrated in the eastern coastal and western border provinces.
An Empirical Analysis of the Synergies between Agricultural Insurance and Agricultural Credit in Shaanxi
CHEN Chang-min;KANG Fang-li;School of Economics,Xi'an University of Finance and Economics;In the study of the relationship between agricultural insurance and agricultural credit,which is becoming more and more concerned by the academia,there is no empirical research on the synergies between agricultural insurance and agricultural credit in Shaanxi.With the agricultural insurance premium income and the amounts of agricultural loans in 2001-2004 years of Shaanxi as sample data,after the descriptive analysis,via Co integration test,Regression analysis and Granger causality test methods,this study makes a quantitative analysis of the synergies between agricultural insurance and agricultural credit in Shaanxi.The results show that,in Shaanxi province,there exists long-term equilibrium relationship between agricultural insurance and agricultural credit,agricultural insurance has a significant positive influence on agricultural credit,agricultural insurance is the Granger reason of agricultural credit,and the results of Granger causality test is consistent with the results of Co integration test and the analysis of the regression.
Testing of the GARCH Effect and Model Selecting in Shanghai Security Market
YAN Zhi-gang(Department of Quantitative Economics,Dongbei University of Finance & Economics, Dalian 116025,Liaoning)In this paper, author tests the GARCH effect in Shanghai security market by the closing price of the composite index of Shanghai Security Market from Oct.8, 1999 to Nov.7, 2003. The result shows that there is a remarkable GARCH effect in Shanghai Stock market. Through further research, author finds this effect is asymmetric. And, among all the models, EGARCH (1, 1) model performs best. Moreover, author finds that the GARCH -M model is not suitable for simulating the fluctuation situation of the stock price of Shanghai Security Market.
Construction and Application on China Financial Stress Index
DING lan;LI Peng-tao;LIU Li-xin;School of Statistics,University of International Business and Economics;Financial systemic risks are ultimately manifested in financial pressures in macroeconomics.Measuring financial risks,relieving financial pressures,and effectively reducing the impact of financial risks on the macro economy are the top priorities for deepening financial supervision.CRITIC and standard deviation reciprocal weighting method are combined to construct the financial stress index of the six major systems of banks,bonds,stocks,foreign exchange,real estate and derivatives.On the basis,static and dynamic weights of China's financial stress index are constructed and compared.Finally,the relationship between China's financial stress index and macroeconomic variables PPI,CPI,and PMI is examined.The results show that,firstly,the dynamic China financial stress index is more accurate in measuring financial pressure,and the relationship with major macroeconomic variables is more reasonable.Secondly,during the high-pressure period,China financial stress index first promoted the rise of PPI and CPI,and then promoted the rise of PMI.PMI has a Butterfly effect in the face of financial pressure shocks.Thirdly,the weight of CFSI presents different characteristics in different stress periods.The weight of the bank and real estate system in the high-pressure period rises,and the weight of the stock system and the derivative system increases in the low-pressure period.Therefore,the government should focus on macro-control banking and real estate systems during the high-pressure period to prevent and reduce China's financial pressure.In the low-pressure period it should focus on the impact of the stock and derivatives markets.
The Neglected Potential Poverty Individuals:Analysis of Multidimensional Poverty of China's Rural Left-behind Children
L Wen-hui;SU Hua-shan;HUANG Shan-shan;School of Economics,Nanjing University of Finance and Economics;Based on capability theory of Amartya Sen and the Alkire-Foster model,the paper constructs the multidimensional poverty index of left-behind children in China's rural areas.We use the panel data of China Family Panel Survey to select seven poverty dimensions and study the situation of left-behind children and use the Logit regression to explain whether left-behind children in rural areas are more likely to fall into multidimensional poverty due to absence of parents.We found that rural left-behind children were more severe than rural non-left-behind children in terms of health status,BMI index and household appliances.However,the health status and BMI index of left-behind children whose parents are both out were worse.The incidence of multidimensional poverty and poverty index of left-behind children remained significantly higher than those non-left-behind children in rural.We find that the poverty situation of leftbehind children in the western region is significantly worse than in the eastern and middle regions.Moreover,there was no significant gender difference in the multidimensional poverty of left-behind children.
The Impact of Digital Transformation on Enterprises’ Customer Relationship
GE Haiyan;DING Xiaoqiang;Whether digital transformation can help enterprises better integrate and optimize customer relationships is an important issue in both theoretical and practical circles.Based on the data of Chinese listed companies from 2007-2022,opply Python to crawl the analysis text of the annual reports of all listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, and combine word frequency analysis technology to construct enterprise digital transformation indicator.By using the indicator, the impact and mechanism of digital transformation on enterprises' customer relationships are empirically examined.Further, the economic consequences of adjusting enterprise customer relationships are explored under the background of digital transformation.The main findings are as follows.First, digital transformation can significantly promote the decentralization of enterprise customer relationships.Moreover, after undergoing a series of robustness tests such as endogeneity treatment, replacing key variables, adjusting regression samples, and changing econometric models, the above conclusion still holds.Second, mechanism analysis shows that digital transformation can promote the decentralization of customer relationships by enhancing the enterprises' competitive position in the market and impoving its customers' satisfaction.The basic logic is that, on the one hand, digital transformation can enhance the enterprises' market competitiveness, which will help it enter a larger market, and acquire a larger customer base.On the other hand, digital transformation can alleviate information asymmetry between enterprises and their customers, which will ensure the enterprises quickly adjust their products or services to improve their customers' satisfaction and be helpful to attract target customers to actively seek cooperation with upstream enterprises.Third, heterogeneity analysis indicates that digital transformation has a greater impact on the diversification of customer relationships for enterprises in areas with high levels of openness to the outside world, non-state-owned and non durable goods industries, strong intellectual property protection, and high market integration.Therefore, the government needs to strictly adhere to the principle of differentiation, formulate targeted and differentiated support measures for enterprises with different characteristics and in different external environments, and implement policies tailored to each enterprise.Finally, the economic consequences test shows that under the background of digital transformation, the diversification of enterprise customer relationships can not only reduce their business risks, but also increase their business performance.Therefore, in the face of increasingly fierce market competition, enterprises should seize the opportunities of digital economy development, and accelerate the deep integration of digital technology with production, operation, and organizational management methods.By harnessing the power of digital transformation, enterprises can optimize their supply chain customer relationships reasonably, reduce excessive dependence on large customers in the supply chain, and achieve synergistic improvement between operational efficiency and operational safety.This research provides a useful supplement for understanding the link between enterprise digital transformation and customer relationships' integratation and optimization, which can help to provides empirical evidence for the government's precise policy, enterprise digital transformation strategy and supply chain management.
Empirical Study on the Vulnerability to Poverty of Urban Household from Multi-dimensional Perspectives
WU He-cheng;WAN Li-yang;LU Wei-xue;Using the micro-survey data of urban households in China,a probability model is constructed and it measures the poverty vulnerability by parameters estimated by three-stage feasible generalized least squares method,and then conducted an empirical analysis from the multi-dimensional perspectives of the country,region and household.The study finds that family welfare obeys square root normal distribution and fails to possess traditional consistency.In China,urban relative poverty is severe and temporary poverty is more common,Henan and Hunan are the areas with high incidence of urban poverty in the future,Guangxi and Hubei tend to be relatively poor,and Beijing reveals an obvious regional poverty characteristic.Female heads of household have the gift of avoiding absolute poverty,while male heads of household have more advantages in coping with relative poverty.As the head of household grows older,the poverty vulnerability level fluctuates cyclically.Child rearing and family psychological issues have become significant factors in aggravating the poverty vulnerability,while marriage and balanced improvement of the educational level of each member show good inhibitory effects.Based on the conclusion,it provides practical guidance for the urban level in the critical stage of poverty alleviation.
Research on the Connotative Characteristics and Measurement of Common Prosperity
ZHANG Hanyu;WU Zhenlei;Common prosperity is the essential requirement of Socialism with Chinese Characteristics.It is a great practical significance to accurately grasp the connotation and characteristics of common prosperity and the status of China's common prosperity and Chinese path to modernization.Because of the history, geographic location and other characteristics, there is a great gap between the provinces of China.The gap is the main obstacle to hinder the Common Prosperity in China.This paper starts from the connotation characteristics of common prosperity, focuses on regional disparities, and on the basis of interpreting the connotation of common prosperity, constructs a regional common prosperity measurement framework from the two dimensions of “prosperity” and “sharing”,including material wealth, life security, public services, and sharing degree, and comprehensively studies the degree of realization of common prosperity in China.The result of this research reveal that China's overall wealth level is showing an upward trend; The increasing speed of sharing level is not as fast as the level of affluence, and the main source of differences in affluence level is inter provincial differences; The comprehensive analysis shows that China has experienced “common poverty” to “differential prosperity”,and now it has entered the development stage of “common prosperity”.Most eastern provinces have a high degree of common prosperity, while western regions have a low degree of common prosperity; The national central city has become the rich center of the city region, playing the role of leading the rich first.However, in the current urban agglomeration planning, too much emphasis on “strong combination” is not conducive to playing the role of leading the rich first of the urban agglomeration.This paper studies China's degree of affluence and sharing from the perspective of the whole and the region, and depicts the spatio-temporal dynamic distribution characteristics.It comprehensively analyzes the degree of realization of China's common prosperity and the role of national central city and urban agglomeration in driving the first rich, so as to provide decision-making reference for the correct understanding and promotion of China's common prosperity in the new development stage.
A Spatial Econometric Analysis on Impact Factor of Provincial Insurance Industry Development in China
TAN Duo-duo(School of Finance and Statistics,Hunan University,Changsha 410079,China)By using spatial constant coefficient model,known as the Spatial Lag Model and Spatial Error Model,and spatial varying coefficient model which is named Geographically Weighted Regression Model,a spatial econometric analysis on insurance industry development among different provinces in China is performed.The results show that the spatial distribution of China's 31 provincial insurance industry is apparent spatial autocorrelation,and the development of the provincial insurance industry is mainly affected by the regional economic development,industrial structure,population dependency status,educational level and social security,and these factors have significant positive effect on the insurance industry.