被引排行
The Evaluation of the Borrower's Credit Risk in Peer-to-Peer Lending under the Background of Big Data:Evidence from RenRen Dai
LIU Xiang-dong;LI Fen;School of Economics,Jinan University;Massive transaction data is flowing on the Peer-to-Peer lending platforms every day in the age of big data.For the purpose of making the most of these data to control the credit risk effectively,we established the credit risk evaluation model of Peer-to-Peer lending using data mining methods.Moreover,due to the imbalance of the data,we decided to use the synthetic minority over-sampling technique(SMOTE)to improve the performance of the credit risk model after several tries.The empirical study found that Random Forests is more suitable for the evaluation of credit risk.CART,ANN and C4.5also perform well.In addition,the borrower's marital status and possession of house,car,mortgage and auto loan is of no importance,but their personal information(company size,employment length,etc.)and credit information(loan information,credit score,etc.)play an important role in the evaluation of credit risk.
Economic Policy Uncertainty,Financing Constraint and Firm Investment
LI Jia-lin;DONG Jia-chang;ZHANG Qian-xiao;School of Economics and Finance,Xi'an Jiaotong University;With the purpose of stabilizing economic development and enhancing market entities vitality,a series of policies have been implemented by the government to cope with changeable world situation during the post financial crisis era,and to suit reformatory domestic economy under the transitional phase.However,downward trend of total investment rate in China has not been stopped by frequent government intervention and regulation.Meanwhile,financial friction has not been mitigated either.Under this background,a theoretical model is built to illustrate the relationship between the economic policy uncertainty,financial friction and firm investment.Then,quarterly data of listed companies in Chinese A-Share Market during the period of 2009-2018 is used to test the impact of economic policy uncertainty on firm investment level and efficiency.Several conclusions have been found:firm investment will be reduced due to higher degree of economic policy uncertainty through both direct channel and indirect channel,including the direct effect on firms' intertemporal decision making and indirect effect on firms' financing constraint.In addition,different influences of the economic policy uncertainty on heterogeneous firms have been further studied,showing that the firm investments of firms who invest over reasonable level and firms who invest below reasonable level have been influenced by the increase of economic policy uncertainty differently.
An Empirical Study on the China's Listed Companies Merging Performance
XU Wei-lan1,CUI Guo-ping2(1.School of Accounting,Xi'an University of Finance & Economics,Xi'an 710061,China;2.Journal Management Center,Xi'an University of Finance & Economics,Xi'an 710061,China)The paper carries out an empirical study using case study method and financial indicators evaluation method on the performance of listed companies in China.The paper draws the following conclusions: the M & A(Merger and acquisition) market as a whole responses positively to the merging,with a surplus income in M & A a few days later;there is a short-term improvement of the M & A in the merging year and the successive year,but as time passes by,in the second year after the merger there is a downward turn;in the sample analysis on the four types of merge and acquisitions,we can see that the performance in the parent company and the category of listed companies has seen significant improvement,and the free transfer listed companies has not seen significant change.This again shows the impact of the government control of the decision-making in the short term,but can not really raise the effective market mechanism.
The Choice of Spatial Econometric Models Reconsidered in Empirical Studies
JIANG Lei;School of Economics,Zhejiang University of Finance & Economics;There are two kinds of basic spatial econometric models:spatial lag model and spatial error model.The aim of this paper is to reconsider the choice of spatial regression models.Four conclusions are drawn:firstly,Moran's I is used to test spatial dependence among residuals in the OLS model.Secondly,in empirical studies Lagrange Multiplier(LM)test is performed to point out which model is in favor of.However,LM test is designed to test for spatial dependence for residuals of regression models,but ignored the vary basic economic theory or theoretical grounds,which may lead to a wrong specification.Hence,the choice of spatial econometric models should be based first on the basic theoretical grounds and then on LM test results.Thirdly,spatial error model ignored in empirical studies is better than spatial lag model to some extent.Finally,empirical studies usually ignore to test model specifications.Anselin proposed three statistics.If specification is appropriate,it follows that Wald >Log likelihood>LM.
The Specification of Model,Statistical Tests and New Progresses of Panel Data Analysis
BAI Zhong-lin(Statistics Department,Tianjin University of Finance & Economics,Tianjin 300222,China)Based on the introduction of the advantages and limitations of panel data,first of all,this paper discuss the specification of static panel regressive model,estimations of dynamic panel model and Granger causality test from the views of heterogeneity,time-variant and correlation.And according to the null hypothesis of hypothesis testing,the theory of panel unit root test and co-integration test are systemically described.Finally,it introduces new progresses of econometrics of panel data.
The Nonlinear Impact of Digital Inclusive Finance Effects on Rural Residents' Consumption Structure Upgrading
DU Jia-ting;HE Yong;GU Qian-nong;Given the present complex international and domestic economic and business environment, Chinese central government proposed a strategic development plan focusing on the leading role of the domestic circulation and promoting the mutual improvement of domestic and international dual-circulation.However, the fact of the matter is that the consumption structure of Chinese rural residents still remains at a relatively low level.Therefore, upgrading the consumption structure of rural residents becomes an inherent requirement for the implementation of the dual-circulation strategy.According to inter-provincial panel data from 2011-2020 in China, this study developed a panel threshold effect and intermediary effect model that empirically investigated the impacts of Digital Inclusive Finance on rural residents' consumption structure upgrading.The results reveals that, firstly, on the whole, digital inclusive finance has a significant contribution to the upgrading of the consumption structure of rural residents in China, and the contribution is mainly in the form of “marginal incremental” and “inverted S-shaped” non-linear patterns.Secondly, in terms of heterogeneity, there is a double-threshold effect of the breadth of digital inclusive finance coverage and the degree of digitization on the upgrading of rural residents' consumption structure, while there is a single-threshold effect of the depth of digital inclusive finance usage.A double-threshold effect of digital inclusive finance on the upgrading of rural residents' consumption structure is recognized in the central and western regions, areas with high consumption structure and low total retail sales exist.By contrast, a single-threshold effect in areas with low consumption structure and areas with high total retail sales is found.Thirdly, in terms of the mechanism of action, digital inclusive finance mainly promotes the upgrading of rural residents' consumption structure through two paths: rural economic development and rural residents' business income growth, from both the willingness and ability perspectives.At present, the “digital divide” still exists to a certain extent in the rural areas of China, and the role of digital inclusive finance in promoting the upgrading of the consumption structure of Chinese rural residents is still constrained by the factors such as the lack of knowledge and skills of rural residents, their low risk tolerance, and their low willingness to invest and start businesses.In this regard, central and local government should provide solid material and technical supports for upgrading rural residents' consumption structure by consolidating the construction of digital inclusive financial infrastructure in the rural areas.It will also vigorously enhance the rural residents' willingness and ability to upgrade their consumption structure by continuously strengthening the rural economy and enhancing their knowledge and skill in investment and entrepreneurship.Our findings suggest to take targeted strategies to promote Digital Inclusive Finance and smoothen the process of upgrading rural residents' consumption structure, considering the heterogeneity of the impact of Digital Inclusive Finance on the upgrading of rural residents' consumption structure.
An Analysis on Factors Influencing the Profitability of China's City Commercial Banks:Evidence Based on Micro Data of 50 Banks
CHEN Yi-hong;Board Office,Bank of Quanzhou;Based on the panel data from 50China's city commercial banks during 2009-2015,this paper empirically test the effects of structure of assets and liabilities and other factors on city commercial banks' profitability by use of dynamic panel data model.Researches show that:increasing levels of deposit and loan can raise city commercial banks' profitability observably;quality of assets and level of cost control are also significantly positive correlated with city commercial banks' profitability.However,the larger the scale doesn't mean that the stronger the profitability and the factors of external macro-environment such as GDP growth and loan growth don't impact the profit of city commercial banks.City commercial banks should not pursue a simple expansion of the scale and should focus on strengthening the balance of assets and liabilities management.City commercial banks should also develop differentiation strategy with their own characteristics,based on their resources and market positioning.
Environmental Regulation,Technological Innovation and High-quality Development of Manufacturing Industry
YANG Ren-fa;ZHENG Yuan-yuan;Using the panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2006 to 2016,the impact of environmental regulation on the high-quality development of manufacturing industry is examined theoretically and empirically,and the regional and instrumental heterogeneity impact of environmental regulation on the high-quality development of manufacturing industry are verified.The intermediary effect model is used to examine the intermediary effect of technological innovation in the process of environmental regulation affecting the high-quality development of manufacturing industry.The results show that,as a whole,the impact of environmental regulation on the quality of manufacturing development presents a "U" type.Regionally,environmental regulation has a U-shaped effect on the high-quality development of manufacturing industry in the central and western regions,but has no significant impact on the eastern region.From the perspective of environmental regulation tools,administrative order-based environmental regulation tools can significantly promote the high-quality development of manufacturing industry,but public participation and market incentive tools are not significant.However,technological innovation has a significant intermediary effect on the impact of environmental regulation on the high-quality development of manufacturing industry.
Modern Industrial Chain Toughness Evaluation and Path Improvement
XIE Jiazhi;HE Wenyu;International changes increase the risk of industrial chain development and industrial chain resilience is an important basis for building a modern industrial system and improving industrial chain security.Understanding the connotation and influencing factors of industrial chain resilience is the basis for theoretical analysis of industrial chain resilience.A multi-dimensional evaluation index system is constructed, including the basic capability of industrial chain, the resilience of industrial chain, the control power of industrial chain and the innovation capability of industrial chain.The level of industrial chain resilience is measured and evaluated by entropy method, and compared internationally with countries such as the United States, Japan and India.It is found that the main factor supporting the resilience of China's industrial chain is the basic capacity of the industrial chain, including infrastructure and labor supply.Compared with developed countries, the contribution of industrial chain resilience and industrial chain innovation capability to the improvement of industrial chain resilience is relatively low.In recent years, the resilience level of China's industrial chain has generally shown an upward trend, but the growth rate has slowed down.From a global perspective, the comprehensive index of industrial chain resilience, industrial chain resilience and industrial chain control of the United States is significantly better than other measurement countries.Japan has obvious advantages in industrial chain resilience and industrial chain innovation, but level of industrial chain resilience in India is low.Therefore, it is necessary to promote the integration of industrial chain innovation and accelerate the development of advanced manufacturing clusters; It is also necessary to strengthen industrial chain governance and improve the control of industrial chain.At the same time, continue to open up at a high level and strengthen the resilience of the industrial chain.It is also necessary to accelerate the digital transformation of the industrial chain and improve the level of digital development and governance, improve the fiscal, tax and financial service mechanism of the industrial innovation chain and promote the high-quality development of the modern industrial chain.
Default Risk of Local Government Special Bonds:Based on KMV Model
QIAN Li;FENG Wen-jing;With the the scale expansion of local government special bonds in China,the risk of default is also accumulating.Whether the issuance and payment of special bonds is sustainable has become an important issue.Based on the panel data of 31 provinces from 2015 to 2019,the KMV model is used to calculate the expected default probability of local government special bonds.The refinancing bond income is introduced into the debt service income.The repayment of maturing bonds is highly dependent on the refinancing bond.The default risk is temporarily reduced but will not disappear.Among the more risky provinces,tianjin,guizhou and liaoning have far more actually maturing debt in 2020 than they moderately have.In the long run,the higher the debt issuance,the lower the debt-service income and the higher the credit risk.In the short term,the default risk is directly caused by the mismatch between the project cycle and the bond maturity.The bond maturity is shorter than the investment payback period,which will lead to the default risk.